How good is space-for-time substitution

Consistency in spatial and temporal flowering time sensitivity to temperature of wind-pollinated trees: insights from field observation and herbarium data

Ecological forecasting
Changing phenology
Student-led
Manuscript in Preparation
Yi Liu is a 2022 cohort Ph.D. student at the University of Michigan.
Authors

Yi Liu

Yiluan Song

Kai Zhu

Published

March 31, 2025

Keywords

grassland, global change biology, environmental data science, biodiversity, climate change, global change experiment, community ecology, climatic debt, thermophilization

Highlights

  • We developed a method to quantify the differences in the sensitivity of plant phenology to temperature over space and over time, taking the uncertainty of both estimates into consideration.
  • We compared spatial and temporal sensitivities in multiple wind-pollinated species to evaluate the use of space-for-time substitution in forecasting their phenology over time.

Comparing sensitivities with uncertainty

Generalizing to multiple species